Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
